The participants of International seminar URSA'99 within the framework of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) estimated the state and prospects of the activity of scientists, engineers, civil defence and emergency personnel, decision-makers aimed at understanding and control of seismic risk.
At the Seminar the problems involving urban seismic risk were considered, as well as problems of seismic risk at the facilities of increased responsibility and hazard, including high dams and power plants.
Different stages of seismic risk analysis were considered, among them:
- New maps of seismic hazard on the Russian Federation territory (OCP-98) and their presentation for engineering goals;
- Certification and monitoring of building and socio-economic system of urbanisation (SESURB) as a whole;
- SESURB vulnerability estimation relating to earthquakes and secondary perils;
- Methodology and procedure of damage and losses estimation;
- Formation of disaster scenarios (DISC) using GIS-technologies. The ways of seismic risk control were discussed, including preventive strengthening of buildings, and insurance.
The aspects of development and application of disaster scenarios for seismic risk management and control, for preparation for earthquakes and emergency response were evaluated.
At URSA'99 Seminar the regional problems of seismic safety on Russian Federation territory and in some CIS-countries were considered.
At the Seminar the special meeting was held which established Interregional Association for earthquake engineering and natural disaster mitigation (CIS-countries).
The Seminar supports and emphasises:
- basic principles of IDNDR regarding as of paramount importance not a natural hazard but negative consequences which it creates, as well as feasibility and necessity of the reduction of these consequences in order to establish a safer and sustainable developing community;
- value of such initiatives as WSSI, "Earthquakes and Megacities", RADIUS-project for international exchange of knowledge & experience in urban seismic risk analysis and reduction;
- that seismic risk is determined by seismic hazard and vulnerability, however, one can control seismic risk only through vulnerability reduction which makes it a key factor in risk control and analysis. Urban vulnerability is defined by an existing urban lay-out, buildings and structures under operation, lifelines and facilities, however, their state, reliability and safety are not properly standardised in most countries;
- that present knowledge and experience are sufficient for successful disaster prevention and mitigation policy, the main factor here is their quick implementation into practice;
- of great importance also is International exchange of these knowledge and technologies, development of available information education, and training system with a view to create a global "culture of prevention ";
- that the most important aspect demanding special attention and development of disaster prevention and mitigation policy is a local level which in the long-run must be capable of self-sufficient response to any emergency and withstand any disaster
URSA'99 Seminar points to the following:
- different techniques and models for damage and losses estimation, different types of DISC scenarios were developed;
- some of these scenarios are aimed at urgent understanding of the consequences of occurring earthquakes and prompt estimation of the necessity to respond, and volume of assistance in emergency (such scenarios are developed by Civil Defence authorities);
- some of these scenarios are aimed only at understanding and awareness by the population and authorities of seismic risk, and that's why they have an approximate, generalised character;
- some scenarios are aimed at preventive preparedness for earthquakes regarding necessary supplies, resources and manpower available at a national level for emergency management and response in case of an earthquake;
- a few detailed working scenarios have been developed world-wide, including those which can control urban seismic risk;
- the ideal disaster scenario contained both full risk analysis and full cost-benefit analysis is still practically impossible. To increase the DISC effectiveness we have to discuss and refine required and expected output factors of DISC, allowances and uncertainties, alternative scenario necessity, etc.
- exchange of experience, training and distribution of the techniques of multi-purpose disaster scenario development are necessary all over the world, and especially, in developing countries via corresponding centres in Russia, USA, Thailand, etc.
Recommendations were also given for seismo-prone regions of the Russian Federations and GIS-countries.