RAPID ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES AND CASUALTIES AFTER AN EARTHQUAKE

            Following the catastrophic Marmara Sea earthquake as well as the strong earthquake affecting Athens and based on Recommendation 1447 (2000) and 1448 (2000) of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, during the 8th Ministerial meeting of the EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement held in Athens, Greece on 21 and 22 February 2000, the Ministers adopted the Resolution on the economic and social consequences of the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Greece.

With a view to assisting the decision-making process and co-operation, and on the basis of intended development and implementation of the permanent telecommunications system between the national authorities of EUR-OPA countries for risk management (EDRIM), the Ministers instructed the Executive Secretariat of the EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement to implement a plan for making this system available to the Greek and Turkish authorities responsible for risk management, based on:

·        Making available to them a map of earthquake risk areas, regularly up-dated with the help of space images;

·        An early warning system;

·        A geographical information system providing data on earthquake-prone regions;

·        Information regarding the evaluation of damage in regions affected by an earthquake, in order to provide assistance in crisis management and rehabilitation.

Responding to the adopted ministerial Resolution, the Secretariat of the EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement organised three seminars/evaluation sessions on the “Contribution to the Decision-making Process in Seismic Risk Management”:

1.      “The Contribution to the Decision-Making Process in Seismic Risk Management – Models for Earthquake Damage Assessment”, Moscow, Russia, 29 June – 1 July 2000;

2.      “The contribution of Earth Observation Products and Services to the Decision-Making Process in Seismic Risk Management – Use of Thematic Risk Mapping”, Valletta, Malta, 27 September 2000; and

3.      “Assisting Decision Makers in Emergency Situation Management and Co-operation – An Integrated Approach”, Toulouse, France, 13-15 November 2000.

The primary result of the Moscow seminar was the unanimous recognition of the system “EXTREMUM”, developed by EMERCOM of Russia, as being the only one at the present time which is able to provide a quick estimate of damage and casualties caused by major earthquakes all over the world.

It has been agreed that during two six-month periods, starting on 1 August 2000 to the end of January 2001 and from 15 April to October 2001, the EXTREMUM system be tested by providing rapid information on damage and casualties assessment of any earthquake with a magnitude higher or equal to i) M  ³ 5.5. for  the Euro-Mediterranean region; and ii) M  ³ 6.5. worldwide, to:

1.      the network of the Euro-Mediterranean Centres of the Council of Europe’s EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement;

2.      specific national institutions, organisations and/or professionals appointed by national authorities;

3.      the Executive Secretariat of the Council of Europe’s EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement.

The Valletta (Malta) and Toulouse (France) seminars were organised to report and evaluate the EXTREMUM achievements as well as to direct future needs and developments.

Principle characteristics of the EXTREMUM System

            The EMERCOM of Russia’s System “EXTREMUM” was developed within the Russian State Federal Programme “Federal System of Seismological Observations and Earthquake Precision (FSSN)”.

            It is designed to store, analyse and use in the most effective way the considerable massif of spatially distributed information on : 1) space/in the scales of 1:5,000,000; 1:1,000,000; 1:100,000; 1:10,000 and larger/;  2) seismic hazard/seismic zoning and microzoning maps of different scale/; 3) elements at risk/population, buildings and structures, lifeline systems, hazardous facilities/; and 4) algorithms for combining the parameters of mathematical models for estimation of population distribution, buildings’ damage and damage distribution, human casualty, etc.

EXTREMUM is an extensively GIS based tool, having already incorporated numerous data about various parts of the world, at different levels.  This data has been collected, and the system has been developed through the efforts of many professionals and over a period of many years, as a part of some previous projects, and through the initiative of the EMERCOM of Russia.

“EXTREMUM” testing and results

            The testing of “EXTREMUM” has not yet come to a close but we can already say that the EXTREMUM has provided estimates which are fairly good for the predefined objectives of its use, i.e; following the strong to catastrophic earthquake event taking place anywhere in the world, to understand immediately the scale of the problems to which the community is exposed, and to estimate whether wider international emergency response action and disaster relief are necessary or not; and in the affirmative, on which scale and with what urgency.

J.P. MASSUE

Executive Secretary

Council of Europe’s EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement

 

Z. MILUTINOVIC

Director, Council of Europe’s European Centre for Vulnerability of Industrial and Lifeline Systems (ECILS)

Professor at the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology

University  “St. Cyril & Methodius”, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia